Market Report October 2024
Pineapple
The availability of raw materials in the main origin countries – Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia – remains extremely tight. In 2024, Thailand’s total harvest is expected to reach around 700,000 tons, marking the fourth consecutive record low. Following the annual maintenance break, the first factories resumed production in October. Prices continue to move sideways. Based on discussions with our partners at SIAL in Paris, we anticipate an increase in yield for the summer harvest in Q2 2025. Until this becomes available, we recommend promptly covering your requirements. Now is the optimal time – please feel free to reach out to us.
Dates
Supporting prices is the news of crop losses due to September rainfall in Tunisia. The resulting fermentation has already led to a volume reduction of up to 40% in the Deglet Nour variety, even before production begins in mid to late December. We expect initial price indications by the end of October.
Cherry Pepper
Seedlings in the Southern Hemisphere have been planted in the fields. For the new harvest starting in February 2025, we expect stable to slightly declining prices and a buyer’s market. We are also able to meet needs prior to the new harvest. Please reach out to us now.
Coconut
The current market situation for coconut is extremely challenging: Typhoons have caused significant damage to raw materials in Vietnam and Thailand, leading to shortages. These supply constraints are driving up raw material prices in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines as well. We anticipate a decrease by late March/early April. For those who cannot wait, we recommend covering needs on a short-term basis and avoiding long-term stockpiling.
Babycorn
Severe flooding in September has significantly reduced supply in Vietnam. Thai producers are facing similar shortages. New orders will be shipped from January, with a very limited supply available. Forward planning is essential, and we recommend covering immediate needs on a short-term basis.
Mandarins
A heterogeneous picture emerges after SIAL regarding the main origins: China, Turkey, and Spain. Drought has led to yield losses of over 50% in the Hunan and Hubei regions, while in Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang, agricultural land has been politically repurposed, impacting production. We anticipate rising prices by late October/early November.
Climate-related yield declines are also reported from Turkey, with initial price indications expected by early to mid-November.
Spain offers a more positive outlook: yields have increased by 12% compared to last year, electricity prices remain stable, and costs for sugar and cans are decreasing, meeting high demand. We expect stable price indications by early November and recommend loading this high-demand product as soon as it becomes available in December.
Olives
The outlook for this year’s harvest in Spain, Morocco, and Greece is promising: Spain has experienced a lack of rainfall, followed by severe storms that have damaged plants and olives. This has led to below-average harvest expectations for the Hojiblanca and Gordal varieties, although forecasts still show yields above last year. We do not anticipate record prices as seen in the previous harvest. For the Manzanilla and Carasqueña varieties, a generally positive outlook is emerging, with volumes expected to significantly exceed last year’s averages. Morocco began this year’s harvest two weeks ago, with qualities comparable to last year.
In Greece, the harvest for the black Kalamata variety and medium-sized green olives is off to a very satisfying start, both in terms of quantity and quality. However, for larger sizes of green olives (80–100 calibers), we expect limited yields and recommend prompt coverage. Initial prices from Spain are expected by late October, followed by Morocco in early November, with Greece shortly thereafter.
Tuna
Prices in Ecuador have remained firm and stable with slight fluctuations since the fishing ban began. We await with anticipation to see if raw material supply will hold steady after the ban is lifted and if last year’s record catch can be matched. Alongside energy and logistics costs, the pricing strategies of competitors from the Philippines and Papua New Guinea will also have an impact. We are closely monitoring the markets and will keep you informed.
Logistics: Sea Freight
The current sea freight market is more unpredictable than ever: Overcapacity is currently being absorbed by extended transit times around Africa, with the SCFI and WCI at 100% compared to last year, which could quickly lead to a market shift. The upcoming elections in the USA cast a shadow, the Chinese New Year in January, and an uncertain demand situation have surprised the market with an early peak season this summer. We are therefore in intensive contact with shippers and shipping lines to manage the uncertainties of the global transport market for you.
Digitalisation
Henry Lamotte is undergoing significant digitalisation by implementing the supply chain platform Logward. This will ensure transparency in our inbound and outbound processes throughout the entire logistics chain. For you, this means that even with global sourcing and production countries and complex supply chains across all oceans, we will be able to track your shipments more accurately than ever before.
EU Regulations: Anti-Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)
After significant uncertainty regarding the EUDR, the European Commission proposed a delay on October 2, 2024, to give stakeholders more time for implementation. This extension still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council. If approved, the regulation will take effect on December 30, 2025, for medium and large enterprises, and on June 30, 2026, for micro and small enterprises.
Although we consider our sources to be reliable, we do not assume any liability for the completeness and accuracy of the information listed here.
